In the U.S ., even as the COVID-1 9 curve appears to have flattened, and death rates for some groups have dropped to nearly zero, 1 dire admonishings about an ominous “second wave” continue.
Likewise, Sweden, a country that has treated the pandemic differently than most of the globe, is being criticized for its looser rules and lack of lockdowns, even as data hint their refusal to implement a full shutdown of their own communities may have been the best approaching after all.
While most other countries instituted stay-at-home orderings and shuttered schools and firms, Sweden did not. While high-pitched schools and universities closed and rallies of more than 50 people were banned, elementary and middle schools, shops and eateries have remained open during the pandemic. 2
Now, news outlets are trying to use Sweden as an example of what not to do to fight COVID-1 9, quoting a high death toll. “The country’s mortality rates from the coronavirus is now 30% greater than that of the United State when adjusted for population size, ” CBS News reported, 3 but this doesn’t tell the full picture of how Swedes have fared in comparison to the rest of the world.
Sweden May Be Close to Reaching Herd Immunity
If a novel virus is introduced to a population, eventually enough people acquire natural immunity so that the number of susceptible people refuses. When the amount susceptible is low enough to prevent epidemic proliferation, the herd immunity threshold, or HIT, has been reached.
With SARS-CoV-2, the virus that induces COVID-1 9, some estimates have suggested that 60% to 70% of the population must be immune before HIT will be reached, but researchers from Oxford, Virginia Tech, and the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine4 found that when individual variations in susceptibility and exposure are taken into account, the HIT slumps to less than 10%. 5
Independent news source Off-Guardian6 cited data from Stockholm County, Sweden that testified an Hitting of 17%, 7 as well as an essay by Brown University Professor Dr. Andrew Bostom, who clarified :8
” …[ A] respected squad of contagious diseases epidemiologists from the U.K. and U.S. have concluded: ‘Naturally acquired exemption to SARS-CoV-2 may place populations over the herd immunity threshold once as few as 10 -2 0% of its individuals are immune.'”
And, as pointed out in Conservative Review: 9
” … Naturally acquired herd immunity to COVID-1 9 combined with earnest protection of the vulnerable elderly — especially nursing home and assisted living facility inhabitants — is an eminently reasonable and practical alternative to the questionable cure-all of mass compulsory vaccination against the virus.
This strategy was successfully implemented in Malmo, Sweden, which had few COVID-1 9 extinctions by assiduously protecting its elder care homes, while ‘schools remained open, tenants carried on drinking in barrooms and coffeehouses, and the doors of hairdressers and gyms were open throughout.'”
Off-Guardian is still on Stanford’s Nobel-laureate Michael Levitt, who is among those in support of Sweden’s lighter limiteds. Levitt successfully predicted the trajectory of COVID-1 9 deaths in China, including when the deaths would slacken, and has stated that the pandemic would not be as dire as many have predicted.
Have Sweden’s COVID-1 9 Deaths Peaked?
What’s more, in an interview with The Stanford Daily, Levitt is an indication of May 2020, “If Sweden stops at about 5,000 or 6,000 demises, the authorities concerned will is a well-known fact that they’ve reached herd exemption, and we didn’t need to do any kind of lockdown.”1 0
As of July 17, 2020, there is indeed 5,619 deaths in Sweden due to COVID-1 9,11 and in a study released by Levitt and peers June 30, 2020, which analyzes COVID-1 9 outbreaks at 3,546 locations worldwide, it’s predicted that Sweden’s total COVID-1 9 demises will plateau at about 6,000.12
So far, Levitt is spot-on, and it appears, indeed, that Sweden’s COVID-1 9 deaths have slackened, peaking at more than 100 deaths per day and now, midsummer, tallying in the low teens. The intensive care unit at Stockholm’s Sodertalje Hospital has also cleared out, dwelling 77 examples during the pandemic’s peak and only 4 cases as of July 17, 2020.13
Sweden’s Epidemiologist Calls Lockdowns ‘Madness’
Sweden continues to stand by their handling of the pandemic, despite heavy criticism. The country’s state epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, even described the rest of the world’s lockdowns as “madness, ” considers the steep side effects they ultimately cause.
Levitt suggested that not only did lockdowns not save lives, but likely expenditure lives due to social injury, domestic abuse, divorces, alcoholism and other health conditions that were not treated. 14 Bloomberg reported: 15
“‘It was as if the world had gone mad, and everything “were having” discussed was forgotten, ‘ Tegnell said in a podcast with Swedish Radio … ‘The instances became too many and the political pressure got too strong. And then Sweden stood there instead alone.'”
Tegnell stated that shutting down schools was also unnecessary during the course of its pandemic, and scientists from the Institut Pasteur in France indeed found that there was no significant transmitting of COVID-1 9 in primary schools, either among the students or from students to teaches. 16
“The study also confirmed that younger children infected by the fiction coronavirus generally do not develop symptoms or present with minor symptoms that may result in a failure to diagnose the virus, ” study writer Bruno Hoen added. 17
Meanwhile, while Sweden has encouraged its citizens to engage in social distancing, disguise utilization is another matter, and Tegnell has stated that there’s little prove for wearing face disguises. 18
Stanford Expert Slams Lockdowns
Outside of Sweden, other experts, including epidemiologist Dr. John Ioannidis of Stanford University, have also spoken out against statewide lockdown measures in response to COVID-1 9. Ioannidis suggests that 150 million to 300 million people may have already been infected globally and may have developed antibodies to the virus, and the median infection fatality rate has remained low at about 0.25%. 19
As continues to be demonstrated, the elderly and those with underlying health problems appear to be most vulnerable, and the protection such populations should have been a priority. But lockdowns for young, health people are far more questionable. Speaking with Greek Reporter, Ioannidis said: 20
“The death rate in a reporting country depends a lot on the age-structure, who are the people infected, and how they are managed. For people younger than 45, the infection fatality rate is almost 0 %. For 45 to 70, it is probably about 0.05 -0. 3 %.
For those above 70, it intensifies significantly, to 1% or higher for those over 85. For frail, debilitated elderly people with multiple health problems who are infected in nursing home, it can go up to 25% during major outbreaks in these facilities.”
Overall, Ioannidis said the mathematical modelings that predicted hospitals would be overrun by COVID-1 9 patients were “astronomically wrong, ” and although a handful of U.S. infirmaries did become emphasized , no health structures were overrun.
“Conversely, ” he said, “the health care system was severely damaged in many homes because of the[ lockdown] measurings taken, ” while lockdown measures have also significantly increased the number of people at risk of starvation while leading to financial crisis, discontent and civil strife. 21
What’s more, one study even found that 81% of people not exposed to SARS-CoV-2 were still able to mount an immune response against it, which “suggests at least some built-in immune protection from SARS-CoV-2 … “2 2
US Surgeon General Opposes Mask Mandate
With mask usage becoming an increasingly polarized debate, U.S. Surgeon General Jerome Adams encouraged mask usage but spoke out against building them mandatory due to concerns that it could lead to rebellion. 23
In my interview with Denis Rancourt, Ph.D ., a former full professor of physics, and a researcher with the Ontario Civil Liberties Association in Canada, we also discussed the controversial topic of disguises. Rancourt did a thorough study of the scientific literature on disguises, concentrating on evidence testify disguises can reduce infection risk, specially viral respiratory diseases.
If there was any significant advantage to wearing a mask to reduce infection risk to either the wearer or others in the proximity, then it would have been detected in at least one of these trials, yet there’s no sign of such health benefits. He said in our interview 😛 TAGEND
“It constructs no gap if everybody in your team is wearing a mask; it stimulates no change if one is and others aren’t. Wearing a mask or is in conformity with a better environment where disguises are being worn or not worn, there’s no difference in terms of your risk of being infected by the viral respiratory illnes.
There’s no reduction, date. There are no exceptions. All the studies that ought to have tabulated, looked at, wrote, I was not able to find certain exceptions, if you constrain yourself to verified outcomes.”
This is another area where Sweden has stayed ahead of the curve, as they’ve resisted requesting the public to wear masks based on lack of evidence of effectiveness and the risk that they give wearers a false-hearted feel of security. Tegnell did state that officials are considering whether to recommend disguises during application of public transportation, but emphasized masks “definitely won’t become an optimal solution in any way.”2 4
Sweden Speaks Out Against WHO Warning
In late June 2020, the World Health Organization counted Sweden among European countries at hazard of checking a resurgence of COVID-1 9. The warning was based on WHO data showing Sweden had 155 infections for every 100,000 dwellers in the past 14 periods, a higher rate than in most of Europe. 25
Tegnell, however, said that this was a “total misinterpretation of the data” and WHO was confounding Sweden with countries simply at the outset of their outbreaks. Instead, any rise in infections is likely due to increases in testing, Tegnell said, adding, “They didn’t call to ask us. The number of admissions to intensive care is at a very low level and even demises are starting to go down.”2 6
Time will tell whether Sweden’s strategy, which eschewed lockdowns and widespread mask usage, will prove to be the right one after all, but some believe the writing is already on the wall. 27
“Dr. Michael Levitt and Sweden have been right all along, ” Off-Guardian reported. “The only way through COVID-1 9 is by achieving the modest( 10 -2 0 %) Herd Immunity Threshold required to have the virus snuff itself out.
The sooner legislators — and the press — start talking about HIT and stop talking about brand-new supported examples, the better off we will all be. Either way, it’s likely weeks , not months, before the data of new daily deaths will be so low-pitched that the press will have to find something new to scare everyone. It’s over.”
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