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Here are CBS’ renew/cancel standings for week 12 of the 2018-19 season, including how the third season rule has made one drama a near-certain renewal.
Show
Status
18-49 rating
Renew/Cancel Index
The Big Bang Theory
Final season
2.24
1.64
Happy Together (O)
DSW
0.87
0.27
Murphy Brown
DSW
0.87
0.27
Madam Secretary (O)
0.59
-0.01
S.W.A.T.
0.73
0.13
Criminal Minds
0.75
0.15
SEAL Team (O)
0.85
0.25
Magnum P.I.
0.87
0.27
Bull (O)
0.81
0.21
NCIS: New Orleans (O)
0.88
0.28
NCIS: Los Angeles (O)
0.89
0.29
God Friended Me
0.96
0.36
MacGyver (F) (O)
0.71
0.42
FBI
1.06
0.46
The Neighborhood (O)
1.10
0.50
Hawaii Five-O (F) (O)
0.80
0.54
Blue Bloods (F) (O)
0.82
0.57
Mom
1.23
0.63
NCIS (O)
1.30
0.70
Young Sheldon
1.72
1.12
“Bull” has experienced a noticeable decline from its second season to its third this fall, and with a 0.81 live + same day average rating among adults 18-49, is one of CBS’ lowest-rated shows. Still, the show is a very likely renewal.
The series sits in a good place because of the third season rule, and with a fairly consistent (if lower) ratings performance this fall, CBS likely still has enough confidence in it to give it another push towards an eventual syndication deal. Like “MacGyver,” the show’s status as a third year title does a lot of work for it.
In other news, the Bear still considers “FBI,” “God Friended Me,” and “The Neighborhood” to be likely renewals. All three shows got off to good starts this fall, and barring any drastic declines when they return in 2019, have done enough to secure optimistic predictions from the Bear.
Key:
DSW
Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
sure bet to be canceled by May 2019
likely to be canceled by May 2019
tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2019
likely to be renewed by May 2019
sure bet to be renewed by May 2019
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2018-19 season, replacement level is a 0.6 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.1 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.6 (or 0.1) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.
Read more: tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com
